How will football return after this unplanned hiatus?

As many of us fill the void in live sport by watching repeats

published : 06 April 2024

Football's return is a topic sparking much speculation and debate. Questions abound regarding how leagues and competitions will resume, whether seasons will be completed or shortened, and how champions, qualification, promotion, and relegation will be determined. The uncertainty surrounding these issues is compounded by external factors like player contracts and the conventional start of the next season.

One proposed solution involves applying statistical modeling, akin to the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method used in cricket to adjust targets in weather-affected matches. By leveraging statistical approaches, it's possible to project outcomes and generate probabilities for different scenarios. For instance, a heatmap illustrating the likelihood of various outcomes in the English Premier League has been produced based on pre-suspension data. While some outcomes, like Liverpool winning the league, seem certain, others, such as European qualification and relegation battles, remain highly uncertain.

Despite the challenges and potential financial implications, there's a strong argument for completing the current season once the COVID-19 situation allows. Historical evidence suggests that fans have a pent-up demand for football after major disruptions like world wars. However, lower league clubs, which heavily rely on matchday revenue, may face significant struggles without external support. Additionally, playing behind closed doors can affect match outcomes, with referees potentially favoring home teams less in empty stadiums.

Overall, the prevailing sentiment favors finishing the current season, even if it means postponing the start of the next one and making scheduling adjustments. Completing the season is seen as both financially prudent and essential for maintaining the integrity of the sport.